Robert Zieliński / Simulators / Mathematics / Probability

Longshot the math of tail bets · pure JS · law of large numbers · EV · ruin

EV/$1 — payout — Kelly — bust —

p win 0.30 q price 0.25 f bet 5% reveal speed 0 balls

P&L

Longshot · Lattice idle

waiting for simulator…

Lattice law of large numbers · Tail payout = 1/price · Equity drawdowns & ruin · Signal manufactured confidence profit / win loss / bust theory / active median / breakeven hero (survivorship)