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Longshot · Lattice
idle
waiting for simulator…
On load the inputs are p , q and f : you win of your bets on a $1 contract priced at , staking of the bankroll each time. A win pays gross, the breakeven win rate is , so the expected value is per $1 staked and the growth-optimal Kelly stake is . Over sequential bets in seeded Monte-Carlo runs the median bankroll ends at , the luckiest run at , and of runs fall below 10% of the $1,000 start. Illustrative values, not market data — the defaults are the sim's own, chosen so the edge is real but the bust risk is not zero.
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